Betting Bankroll Tracker & Arbitrage Ledger

OranRadar
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What is a surebet? Calculator
Zakynthos – Niki Volou (Yunanistan - Yunanistan. Süper Lig 2) · Handicap +2.5Home: 1.75 / Away: 3.10 · +11.86% Surebet
Dolezal, Vaclav – Regner, Tomas (Çekya - Czech Liga Pro) · Handicap -1.5Home: 2.45 / Away: 1.95 · +8.58% Surebet
Jiri Grohsgott – Zdenek Kasinski (Liga Pro) · Handicap +1.5Home: 1.87 / Away: 2.56 · +8.06% Surebet
Chicago Bears – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) · Roschon Johnson - Koşu Yardı 16.5Over: 2.44 / Under: 1.90 · +6.83% Surebet
Bombay YMCA – Oscar Foundation FC (Hindistan - Hindistan. Mumbai Lig) · Handicap +3Home: 1.98 / Away: 2.32 · +6.68% Surebet
Erchim – Khovd Western (Moğolistan - Moğolistan Şampiyonası) · Total Over/Under 5Over: 2.40 / Under: 1.92 · +6.67% Surebet
Team Spirit – FUT Esports (Turnuvalar - BLAST Rivals) · Winner1: 1.48 / 2: 3.81 · +6.59% Surebet
Steffan, Jan – Dolezal, Vaclav (Çekya - Czech Liga Pro) · Handicap -1.5Home: 2.46 / Away: 1.88 · +6.56% Surebet
Al Wakra – Al Duhail (Qatar Championship) · Total Over/Under 58.5Over: 2.60 / Under: 1.80 · +6.35% Surebet
Vojtech Kocian – Jiri Stach (Liga Pro) · Handicap -1.5Home: 2.52 / Away: 1.83 · +6.13% Surebet
Zmuda, Petr – Cermak, Vladimir (Çekya - Czech Liga Pro) · Handicap +1.5Home: 1.89 / Away: 2.42 · +6.12% Surebet
America FC MG – Avai SC (Brezilya - Brasileiro Serie B) · Match Result (1X2)1: 3.29 / X: 3.55 / 2: 2.80 · +6.07% Surebet
Zika Tadeas – Michal Cabis (Liga Pro) · Handicap +1.5Home: 1.86 / Away: 2.45 · +5.73% Surebet
Perez, Lenar – Ziyatdinov, Artur (Pro Boxing) · Winner1: 1.23 / 2: 7.50 · +5.67% Surebet
New Orleans Pelicans – Los Angeles Clippers (ABD - NBA) · Dejounte Murray - Üçlük 1.5Over: 2.75 / Under: 1.71 · +5.59% Surebet

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Surebet arbitrage calculator

Enter decimal odds and your total stake; optimal leg stakes and guaranteed profit update instantly.

How is a surebet calculated?

  1. Sum the implied probabilities (1 / odds).1/2.30 + 1/2.15 = 0.900
  2. If the sum is below 1.000, an arbitrage exists.Profit = 1 / 0.900 − 1 = 11.12%
  3. Size each leg proportionally to 1 / odds.Stake = Bankroll × (1/odds) / sum

When stakes are rounded, payouts vary slightly between outcomes; guaranteed profit reflects the minimum payout.

Value bet & Kelly calculator

Enter the fair consensus odds, the bookmaker's price, and your bankroll to calculate +EV edge and Kelly stake.

How is expected value (+EV) calculated?

  1. Convert fair odds into true probability.1 / 2.00 = 50%
  2. Multiply by bookmaker odds; above 1.00 is +EV.0.50 × 2.30 = 1.15 → +15%
  3. Size with Quarter-Kelly to control variance.2.9% of bankroll

Inside the scanner, OranRadar strips bookmaker margin (vig) across independent feeds before computing true fair odds. Quarter-Kelly (0.25×) is recommended because full Kelly carries steep drawdowns.

What is a surebet?

In short: locking in a mathematical profit from price discrepancies between two bookmakers on the same match.

Start with an everyday example

Imagine an exchange desk selling euros at $1.08 while another desk across the street is buying euros at $1.10. If you buy at the first desk and immediately sell at the second, you pocket $0.02 per euro without predicting where the currency goes tomorrow. Two dealers priced the same asset independently, creating a spread you can capture.

The exact same thing happens in sports betting

Every bookmaker prices match outcomes with its own feed and risk model. Most of the time prices align, but whenever one bookmaker posts high odds on Outcome A while another lingers high on Outcome B, backing every outcome proportionally guarantees a payout larger than your combined stake — no matter who wins. That is a surebet (sports arbitrage).

ExampleYou deploy $1,000 totalIce hockey · Total goals 6.5
PinnacleOver 6.5 (7 or more goals)2.30Stake $483
StakeUnder 6.5 (6 or fewer goals)2.15Stake $517
  • 7+ goals scored — Pinnacle pays out$483 × 2.30$1,111
  • 6 or fewer goals — Stake pays out$517 × 2.15$1,111

Either way, $1,000 staked returns $1,111: +$111 11.12%

Why do arbs appear? Providers, not logos

Most sportsbooks lease odds from upstream B2B providers rather than trading in-house. Books sharing the same provider move in lockstep and rarely arb against each other. Real arbitrage emerges across independent providers when one feed reprices sharp action while another lags by seconds or minutes.

Same provider · Over 6.5

1xBet · BetB2B1.95

BetWinner · BetB2B1.95

Identical feed — zero spread
Different providers · Over 6.5

Pinnacle · Proprietary2.30

Roobet · Betby1.72

Wide cross-feed gap — surebet window

OranRadar scans 6 independent odds providers plus proprietary sharp books simultaneously to surface genuine cross-feed discrepancies.

How to execute on OranRadar

  1. Pick a surebet from the scanner

    Each row displays the ROI %, exact market, bookmakers, and live odds.

  2. Size and open both legs

    Click a row to auto-calculate rounded stakes for your bankroll and jump directly to each match page.

  3. Log to your Bankroll ledger

    Track settled P&L, bookmaker balances, and rebalance transfers automatically.

Practical rules before you start

  • Windows close quickly. Live arbs can adjust within seconds; always verify both betslips before confirming.
  • Check the price before clicking place. If one leg moves, plug the updated odds into the calculator to resize the hedge.
  • Round your stakes. Betting $485 instead of $483.09 blends in with recreational flow and protects account longevity.
  • Know house rules. Tennis retirements, overtime inclusion, and postponed match rules can differ across bookmakers.

What is a value bet?

In short: backing a single outcome when a bookmaker's odds are higher than its true fair probability.

Start with an everyday example

Suppose every comparable used car of the same model, year, and mileage sells for $20,000 — except one seller lists theirs at $18,000 for a quick sale. Buying below true market value gives you an immediate mathematical edge. A value bet is the exact same principle applied to odds.

In betting, odds are the price

Across dozens of bookmakers and sharp feeds, the margin-free consensus price accurately reflects an outcome's true probability. Whenever one lagging provider leaves its odds significantly above that true consensus price, backing that single outcome carries positive expected value (+EV) — a value bet.

See it in actionTennis · Kovač vs Novak · "Novak to win" across seven independent feeds
Fair price 2.00
BreakingKovač grabs his wrist in warm-ups and plays injured

Before warm-ups, all seven feeds price Novak right around 2.00. Trigger the injury news and watch how feeds react.

Why we deduplicate providers

Clone bookmakers on the same B2B feed (such as 1xBet and BetAndYou on BetB2B) copy the exact same odds. Counting clones separately would distort the consensus average. OranRadar collapses identical feeds into one vote per provider, removes bookmaker margin (vig), and measures true +EV against independent market consensus.

Surebet vs. Value Bet

Surebet (Arbitrage)

Execution2–3 books, every outcome

Single matchGuaranteed profit

Lower ROI per bet, near-zero variance
Value Bet (+EV)

Execution1 book, single outcome

Single matchCan win or lose

Higher ROI realized over 100+ bets

How to execute on OranRadar

  1. Pick a +EV edge

    Review the bookmaker price, +EV percentage, and number of independent feeds in the consensus pool.

  2. Stake a small fraction

    Use Quarter-Kelly sizing (typically 1%–3% of bankroll) so variance stays comfortable.

  3. Let volume compound

    Individual matches are noisy; mathematical edge compounds steadily over dozens of bets.

Practical rules before you start

  • Variance is normal. Losing streaks happen even with a 10% edge; never over-bet a single match.
  • Verify extreme edges. Edges above 15% can indicate a stale line or team-name mismatch — check the "verify" badge.
  • More feeds = sharper fair price. Prefer pools backed by 5+ independent feeds.
  • Act before the lagging feed catches up. Confirm the bookmaker's price hasn't dropped before submitting your slip.

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